The Final Bust: Country Strategies to Escape the Pitfalls of Low Commodity Prices
Oil and mineral prices have been in a slump for two years, crippling economies in natural resource-rich countries around the world. While some countries—including Bolivia, Indonesia, Norway, Peru, Saudi Arabia and Timor-Leste—were well-prepared, others have not fared so well. Unmet expectations of large resource revenues have exposed budget vulnerabilities in Cameroon, Ghana, Iran, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria and Venezuela, among others. Important oil or mining projects in Guinea, Mongolia, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda are being delayed. As a result, each country has postponed plans for investments in much-needed infrastructure and social services. And opposition and civil society repression is intensifying in Azerbaijan, Gabon, Russia and Venezuela, likely related to financial pressures on elites.
Three experts and policymakers will explore how oil, gas and mineral-rich countries have responded to the commodity price crash and what they can do to prevent future boom-bust cycles. Why did so many countries fail to plan for the commodity price crash? Is there a race to bottom by countries trying to attract oil and mining investment? How can we encourage politicians to better plan for boom-bust cycles? And, given these boom-bust cycles and an extended period of low prices, will commodities really be a principal source of development financing in the future?
Introduction by Dr. Wolfgang Reinicke, Founding Dean of CEU School of Public Policy
- Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Oxford, UK
- Ms. Rani Febrianti, Head of Legal Information, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia
- Dr. Donald Mmari, Executive Director, Policy Research for Development (REPOA), Tanzania
The discussion will be moderated by Mr. Andrew Bauer, Senior Economic Analyst, Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).