What Does Brexit Mean?

"Apart from UK Prime Minister Theresa May's mantra that 'Brexit means Brexit' and her determination to trigger Article 50 to begin negotiations for Britain's withdrawal from the EU by the end of March 2017, we know very little about the future direction or consequences of Brexit," commented Erasmus Mundus Visiting Scholar Nick Wright in a presentation at the School of Public Policy on November 14.

Wright began his remarks by summarizing some of the key assumptions of both the Leave and Remain campaigns about the nature of the voting electorate and how they would vote on June 23, 2016: that older voters were more like to vote than younger voters and that they were more likely to vote to leave the EU; that the older and less educated, and also traditional Labour Party voters, were more likely to vote to leave; and that younger and more educated voters were more likely to vote to remain. Wright noted that the results of the referendum showed that the first three assumptions had been largely correct, but that a majority of traditional Labour voters had actually voted to remain in the EU. Initial post-referendum reports suggesting that younger voters – expected to be largely pro-Remain – had failed to vote, however, proved to be inaccurate. A much higher number of 18-25 year-olds participated in the referendum, but not enough to secure a Remain victory. Wright said that the Brexit referendum result revealed a UK split almost down the middle numerically, while other divisions were apparent between urban and rural populations; regionally; between generations; and, to some extent, along class lines as well.

Wright identified a number of interesting issues that have been raised by the referendum. Noting that both Scotland and Northern Ireland had voted to remain in the UK, Wright asked, "Could the UK split?" In a discussion about the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, Wright said that the UK's economic future remained uncertain, although some of the more extreme predictions had not happened: "It is too soon to tell what the impact of Brexit will be – on foreign direct investment and on London's position as Europe's financial center," he said.
There is no question, said Wright, that the Brexit vote will affect the "Special Relationship" between the United States and the United Kingdom. So too will the US presidential elections. Wright observed that a Trump presidency poses "a particular challenge" for May who is hoping to secure trade deals around the world.