Thinking About the Future

School of Public Policy Visiting Professor Tom Wales recently offered a day-and-a-half-long course on scenario modeling to master's students enrolled in the four-credit "On the Political Economy of Global Governance" course. Wales introduced SPP students to scenario planning, a tool that has been used by organizations for many years to inform their planning for the future.

One of the biggest challenges to effective strategic planning, explained Wales, is deep-seated cognitive biases that we all have that cause us to, for example, ignore low-probability events and/or assume that the future will be a linear continuation of the past. Wales noted that even those who are aware of these biases have a hard time overcoming them.

The class broke into three groups to address three questions – all focused on the next 10 years: How will Africa-China relations change; how will global environmental governance evolve; and what's the probabilities of a substantial UN organizational restructuring? In all cases, students identified four possible scenarios. Wales used a model developed by Professor George Wright at Strathclyde University and widely used in the industry, to guide students through a series of exercises that helped them identify trends, wild cards, and hinge points. Some were unique to a particular scenario, others occurred more than once.

MPA student Mara Tissera Luna said that she was surprised to discover that she could use "scenario building" in fields other than economic sciences and finance. "I ended up using this tool to better understand the current political and institutional trends in South America, and to make predictions about what might happen in the next five years," she said.

Public policy operates in a highly uncertain environment. Building alternative futures is an important tool our students need to be aware of when they enter the workplace, explains Professor Wolfgang Reinicke. "Tom has done this for many years and does it exceptionally well. So, I am delighted that he was able to come and share some of his insights with our students," he said.

An experienced global risk management team leader, product innovator, and mentor to young analysts, Wales specializes in futures, scenario-building, analysis methodology, and heuristics. Prior to assuming his current position as Group Political Adviser at BP's Government and Political Affairs section, Wales spent ten years at Oxford Analytica Ltd. (OA), an Oxford-based global political risk management firm.